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nstitute of Geophysics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - 1.3.1. ENV.2011.1.3.1-1 Towards real-time earthquake risk reduction

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Date of filling in 08.08.2010
Organization name nstitute of Geophysics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Organization adress Russian Federation, 620016 Yekaterinburg, Amundsen's street, 100
Department/Unit Nuclear geophysics laboratory
Contact person Sc.D. Vladimir Iv. Outkin, correspondent member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RAS advisor, Chief Scientist
Phone +7-922-2024978
Fax +7(343)267-88-72
E-Mail voutkin@mail.ru
Web-site http://www.igeoph.net
Organization type
  • Research
Special Programme
Environment (including climate change) (ENV)
Call identifier
Topic number 1.3.1. ENV.2011.1.3.1-1 Towards real-time earthquake risk reduction
Call Deadline 16-11-2010
Short description of the organization (max 12 lines): Institute of Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences was founded in 1958 as Geophysical Institute of the exploration profile. Currently, it is a broad profile SRI, dealing with the problems of Geophysics and Geo-ecology, including the study of geodynamic phenomena in the Earth's crust.
Expertise offered Geodynamic monitoring. To solve the problems of short-and medium-term forecast of tectonic earthquakes, it is proposed the technique, conventionally called the geodynamic monitoring, which does not use the data of seismic monitoring for the operational decision of the forecast objectives. Geodynamic monitoring is realized by monitoring of the radon gas volume activity change dynamics in selected blocks. It is known, soil radon volume activity depends on the stress state of block of rock. Geodynamic monitoring is carried out by placing of specially designed radon monitors devices within the selected array of rocks The benefits of the geodynamic monitoring as compared with seismic one are: a) the possibility of a reliable short-term prediction of seismic events (earthquakes),b) increasing of the signal to noise ratio, c) the possibility of making quick decisions in real danger of earthquakes, and d) the ability to control the stress-deformed block rock state. The rate of processes that determine the change in the stress-strain state of rocks in the preparation of the earthquake is relatively low, which allows monitoring of process signals in real time. Basic principles of the geodynamic monitoring the following: 1. All recorded earthquakes are independent of each other. 2. External power functions (mechanical, electromagnetic, etc.) that affect the preparation and the occurrence of tectonic earthquakes are divided into two classes: a) "predictive" function - the processes are functionally related to the expected seismic events (eg, stress the crust), b) «trigger functions», functionally contributed to "dumping" the stress, leading to earthquakes. 3. Power of "trigger" functions can affect the energy intensity of the earthquake. Some "trigger" functions have global significance, for example, a sharp change in speed of rotation of the Earth causes "swarm" of tectonic earthquakes around the globe. 4.The strain state of controlled block of rock is determined by the monitoring of radon, and then on the atmospheric fronts movement (causing change in the rate of rotation Earth) and "predictive" radon volume activity change is run a short-term forecast of seismic Events for this block of the crust.
Scientific keywords forecast, earthquake, monitoring
Publications on the topic (other references)
  • V.I. Outkin, A.K. Yurkov, I.I. Kosyakin, AI Shishkanov, E. Mamyrov, M.V. Kang, S. Krivosheyev first results of space-time monitoring of radon in the study of the preparation tectonic events in the Northern Tien-Shan / Ural Geophysical Journal № 7, 2005, Institute of Geophysics, Ekaterinburg
  • V.I. Outkin, A.K. Yurkov. Radon indicator of geodynamic processes / Ural Geophysical Journal № 4, 2007, Institute of Geophysics, Ekaterinburg.
  • V.I. Outkin, A.K. Yurkov Strain of bending and friction - the main processes in the preparation of a tectonic earthquake. Geophysical Journal of the Urals. № 1. 2010. S.67 - 72.
  • V.I. Outkin, A.K. Yurkov, V.N. Bokov, V.A. Korneev model of tectonic earthquake preparation processes and the role of solar-terrestrial relations.Geophys. Institute of NNC of Kazakhstan. Borovoy. 2010.
  • V.I. Outkin, A. K.Yurkov Behavior of radon in the preparation of geodynamic events of 2010. Geophys. magazine. № 2.
  • A.K. Yurkov, D.Y. Demezhko, V.I. Outkin, "Temperature monitoring of wells as a further development hydrogeodynamic method of forecasting the geodynamic state of the Earth's crust" 8 International Workshop "Physical principles of prediction of rock failure," St. Petersburg, 2010.S95-96.
  • V.I. Outkin, A.K. Yurkov "The problem of short-term prediction of a tectonic earthquake", 7 Kazakhstan-China International Symposium on earthquake prediction, evaluation of seismic hazard and risk of central Asia, Alma-Ata, 2010.
  • A.K. Yurkov, V.I. Outkin, D.Y. Demezhko "Future tectonic earthquakes - reality or myth." Ural Mining and Geological decade, Ekaterinburg, 2010.
Description of previous and present experience in International Cooperation The ISTC project. KP-187.2. "Development of methodical recommendations of radon monitoring as a helpful earthquake precursor of the Northern Tien-Shan (Kyrgyz Republic), 2001-2004 For two years in monitoring mode are 8 radon stations on the northern spur of the Kyrgyz Range and along the northern shore of Lake Issyk-Kul. The stations were over 50-70 miles. During observations in the coverage of the stations there are 3 earthquakes with a magnitude 5-5,5. All of these are reflected in the variation curves of radon volume activity.
Previous participation in EU’s Framework Programme projects